Coup d'états and wars are often linked by a causal relationship: unpopular regimes that come to power as a result of externally organized coups, for the purpose of self-affirmation, begin wars against "opponents" designated by their handlers. However, they lose these wars and are overthrown by the people—either peacefully, through elections, or by soldiers returning from a lost war in an armed fashion. The new government, unless it transforms into a dictatorial regime that starts wars (see above), is generally overthrown by a revolution organized from the outside, through the hands of agents of foreign influence. Puppets installed in place of the overthrown, people-elected government begin wars once again, lose them again, and everything continues in the sequence mentioned above. If cycles with such an algorithm repeat, they are capable of destroying any state—both a massive one like Ukraine and a small one like Georgia.

In order to understand which center is managing these processes today and how Georgia can avoid the fate of Ukraine, it is enough to look at the chronology of events. I will say right away—in connection with this, I have two pieces of news for my compatriots: a relatively good one and a bad one. The good news is that this time, this center is located neither in the White House nor in Langley; the bad news is that this center is a unified one and is capable of exerting negative influence even on the current Washington administration headed by President Trump.

So:

• Despite the fact that in June 2025, Donald Trump—less than half a year after his inauguration and busy with his own agenda (the war in Ukraine, Greenland, Latin America, etc.)—had absolutely no time for Iran (which, by the way, confirmed its commitment to the "peaceful atom"), Prime Minister Netanyahu, against whom criminal cases have been opened in Israel, forced the new US President to bomb Iran. Operation “Midnight Hammer” against three nuclear facilities in Iran began on June 22, 2025—exactly 84 years later, night for night, after Nazi Germany bombed Kyiv, which, as is known, marked the beginning of the Great Patriotic War. Despite this hint to Iran's strategic partner—the Russian Federation—President Putin played a significant role in ensuring that, for the first time, Tehran did not respond to the actions of the 47th American President (who possesses great negotiating potential) with all the capabilities available to the Iranian Armed Forces.

• Despite the fact that after the US attack, the Iranian authorities repeatedly expressed readiness for constructive negotiations with the Trump administration (thanks to which the war in the Gaza Strip ended and Hamas released the last hostages), on December 28, 2025, mass protests flared up in Iran. These were organized by Israeli special services (Mossad, AMAN), who most likely requested the assistance of American colleagues, who on January 8, 2026, brought Reza Pahlavi—the son of the last Shah of Iran residing in the US—into the processes.

It is noteworthy that the trigger for the protests in Iran, which were started by traders and picked up by students, was the high price of food and the devaluation of the national currency—the rial. The cause of the economic crisis in a country that ranks 3rd in the world in oil and 2nd in gas is the massive US economic sanctions against Iran, which have lasted for 46 years to this day—beginning in 1979 after the Islamic Revolution and tightening with each passing year.

ATTENTION: Because the 19-day attempt at a coup d'état in Iran ended unsuccessfully on January 18, 2026; because the anti-government forces in Georgia (radical opposition, civil sector/NGOs, the business serving them, media, and other agents of foreign influence) failed to achieve economic sanctions from the US and the EU against Georgia (which did not join economic sanctions against Russia and, moreover, is allegedly "helping Iran and Russia bypass these sanctions" through the "shadow fleet" at the Kulevi terminal, drone deliveries, and similar "sensations"), the aforementioned anti-government forces have intensified preparations in Georgia for a sixth coup d'état.

Despite the fact that there is no devaluation of the national currency in Georgia like in Iran (on the contrary, the Lari is strengthening against the dollar), anti-government forces provoked inflation in Georgia just like in Iran, sharply inflating food prices, which led to a drop in the purchasing power of the Lari. And when the Kobakhidze government tried to bring the owners of grocery supermarket chains to their senses, it caused dissatisfaction among the latter and yielded no results. Car dealers have now joined their protests due to the planned ban on the import of passenger cars older than six years. In other words, traders in Georgia are against the authorities, just like in Iran. Also, just like in Iran, students were raised against the government; instead of being grateful to Prime Minister Kobakhidze for the education reform (which, for the first time since the USSR, provides for free tuition in state universities), they go to protest rallies and hang Ukrainian flags.

• Due to the fact that the protests in Iran never reached their goal (only the head of the Central Bank of Iran, Mohammad Farzin, resigned amid a sharp drop in the rial's exchange rate), Prime Minister Netanyahu began to blackmail the US once again. He realizes that such a "historical opportunity" to deal with the "eternal enemy and threat" to Israel under the "guise" of the war in Ukraine may not present itself again. On February 9, 2026, The Jerusalem Post reported that a high-ranking official from the Israeli Ministry of Defense stated: “We have warned the Americans that we will strike alone, without them, if Iran crosses the red line we have established regarding ballistic missiles.” Moreover, Israel is not satisfied with a limited US strike on Iran; the strike must be full-scale and destructive: “There are fears that Washington may choose several targets, declare success, and leave Israel to deal with the consequences, as happened during Washington's operation against the Houthis in Yemen,” a military source added in an interview with a major Israeli daily. As a result, President Trump sent a second carrier strike group led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford to the region, which in a couple of weeks will join the carrier strike group of the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Middle East as part of the US pressure campaign on Iran.

ATTENTION: On February 11, 2026, the TV tower on Mtatsminda Mountain in Tbilisi was illuminated in the colors of the Iranian flag in honor of the 47th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. This common practice of the capital's authorities caused outrage at the Israeli Embassy in Georgia, which published the following statement: “While the deadly regime of Iran, which supports terror, kills thousands of people on the streets of its cities, oppresses its own citizens, and actively participates in terrorist activities both in the region and around the world, Tbilisi decided to celebrate the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Iran together with this very regime, illuminating the TV tower on Mtatsminda in the colors of the Iranian flag. What signal did Tbilisi send to the region, the world, and the citizens of Iran who have fought for freedom and democracy for so long?”

I think one does not need to be an analyst to understand what signal the Israeli Embassy in Georgia is sending to the US Embassy in Georgia with this Statement—at a time when the Kobakhidze government is in a state of patient expectation for the resumption of the suspended Charter on Strategic Partnership with the US. What signal is the Israeli Embassy sending to the embassies of the EU, Germany, and the entire Western diplomatic corps accredited in Georgia, which already daily condemns the Georgian government for "betraying the European path and turning toward Putin"? The signal given by the Israeli Embassy with its Statement—unprecedented in the history of Georgian-Israeli diplomatic relations—is one: Georgia is no longer a friend of Brussels; it is an accomplice of terrorists and a friend of Moscow. Therefore, it must be treated accordingly—strangled with sanctions, investments stopped, visa-free travel with the EU canceled (like all allies of Russia), and more grants sent to the opposition for the purpose of a coup—organizing another "revolution" to change the "pro-Iranian regime" of "Georgian Dream."

The topic was picked up by the entire aforementioned destructive anti-government sector, speculating on the centuries-old brotherhood of Georgians and Jews and openly declaring the need for an urgent change of the current “pro-Kremlin, pro-Iranian, and pro-Chinese regime of Ivanishvili-Kobakhidze.” Foreign agents, who are discredited beyond measure, are invited to television broadcasts with variations on the messages from the Israeli Embassy. Thus, last week, a former Minister of Defense of Georgia, a “dyed-in-the-wool Republican,” was invited, and she stated that “in all the offices in Washington, she saw photographs on the tables depicting Kobakhidze's two visits to Iran.”

I will remind you that in May 2024, Prime Minister Kobakhidze arrived in Tehran for the funeral ceremony of the tragically deceased President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, and in July of the same year, Kobakhidze arrived in Tehran for the inauguration of the new President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian. This was required not only by Georgian national traditions but also by political etiquette, because: 1—Iran has had diplomatic relations with Georgia since 1992, just like Georgia with the US; Iran was one of the first to recognize Georgia's independence in 1991; 2—Iran is one of Georgia's leading trading partners, with which Georgia has a visa-free regime and direct air communication; 3—Georgia and Iran are a unique example of the wisdom of two nations that were enemies for centuries, especially in the 16th-18th centuries, but later became friends. This is for the information of Georgian TV presenters who shove the reconciliation of Armenia and Azerbaijan (thanks to the US) in the face of the “Georgian Dream” government; it is for the information of the “professoriate” who demonstrated their blatant incompetence during live TV debates with Prime Minister Kobakhidze. This refers specifically to the management of STATE universities, which today are training personnel for the opposition, whose students are in the vanguard of the 6th coup d'état being prepared in Georgia.

Regarding the “Republican” ex-Minister of Defense of Georgia, serious questions arise: if she is not a CIA spy or a traitor to the motherland, how did she get into “all the Washington offices”?! Who invited her and what was she doing in “all the Washington offices”—by any chance, was she asking for money for a coup in Georgia or the introduction of sanctions against Georgia? After all, the US is not just Trump; it is the “Helsinki Group,” Laura Thornton, and Olesya Vartanyan; it is Congressman Joe Wilson—a paid lobbyist for Saakashvili and his “National Movement” party—as well as his anti-Georgian group in the US Congress, which concocted the subversive “Megobari Act,” which only awaits the signature of the US President.

After all this, how can one not recall the Persian proverb: “Before stealing a minaret, dig a hole”? No, not just to hide the stolen minaret there, but also as one's own grave, which the "minaret thief" might not even be granted? For example, Zelensky, who stole all the “minarets” from the Ukrainian people—the Motherland, God, the future, and their Slavic brothers!

• On February 13, 2026, the head of the Kyiv regime, Volodymyr Zelensky—who exerts exactly the same pressure on EU leaders as Benjamin Netanyahu does on Trump—arrived at the 62nd Munich Security Conference. Even though it is annual, this conference was special; its participants—Western leaders—greeted the main neo-Nazi of the 21st century standing, with applause and shouts of “Sieg Heil!”, excuse me—“Glory to the Heroes!” They thereby proved that Munich remains the cradle of National Socialism and the “capital of the movement” of the NSDAP, where Hitler organized the “Beer Hall Putsch” and published “Mein Kampf.” Only this time, instead of Hitler, Munich featured Zelensky and Gakharia—the same ex-Prime Minister of Georgia hiding in Germany from Georgian justice and accused of treason on the orders of foreign special services. It is surprising—why did the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia, Bochorishvili, not immediately leave the conference in protest?!

Furthermore, the failed Shah of Iran—Prince Reza Pahlavi—arrived in Munich from the US and was met first and foremost by Zelensky. The next day, February 14, Zelensky, in his speech at the conference, called Iran the “greatest threat” and stated that the Iranian regime “is capable of causing more harm than many other regimes in a whole century,” therefore, the “atoll must be stopped immediately,” or else, he said, “the results will be the same as when Putin was not stopped in time in Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine.”

Thus, we have noted the forces that today are trying to equate Georgia to Iran and synchronize the processes in Tbilisi and Tehran in order to deal with Georgia along with Iran through the hands of the US.

Arno Khidirbegishvili, General Director and Editor-in-Chief of the Georgian Information-Analytical Agency “GRUZINFORM,” Director of the Center for Security, Strategic Analysis, and Information Policy.

15.02.2026
Georgia, Tbilisi